Transport energy futures:long-term oil supply trends and projections
Report 117
Foreword
In 2007 the Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics (BITRE)commenced a project to look in a strategic way at possible alternative transportenergy futures.
This was driven by a perceived need to address two key challenges to ‘business-as-usual’ for Australian and world transport: oil depletion and global warming.
To examine the oil depletion issue, it was necessary to assemble large amounts ofdata over long periods of time (centuries in a large number of cases). BITRE has hadlong experience with assembling lengthy datasets from multiple and sometimesconflicting data sources, and then analysing their dynamics. This is what has beendone here, to examine the oil production prospects of over 40 countries/regionsaround the world, as a preliminary to delineating the scope of the oil depletionchallenge.
Recognising that the issue of the timing of oil depletion is a highly controversialarea, where information can be contested and where there is a range of views andpositions, comments are expressly invited on this report.
Future reports will examine 1) world oil demand/price relationships and 2) the kindsof responses to the twin challenges of oil depletion and global warming that may bepossible in terms of alternative fuels and propulsion technologies. More
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