The Future of Global Oil Supply: Understanding the Building Blocks

Predicting Supply in a Complex World Fears about "running out" of oil are recurrent. At their strongest, they coincide with periods of high prices and tight supply-demand balance. The latest such period of "peak oil" concerns became very evident from 2004, when strong oil demand ran up against capacity constraints.

In contrast, IHS CERA’s reference case for global liquid productive capacity shows growth through 2030 to around 115 million barrels per day (mbd) and finds no evidence of a peak in supply appearing before that time.
Hydrocarbon liquids—crude oil, condensate, extra heavy oil, and natural gas liquids—are a finite resource; but based on recent trends in exploration and appraisal activity, there should be more than an adequate inventory of physical resources available to increase supply to meet anticipated levels of demand in this time frame.

Post-2030 supply may well struggle to meet demand, but an undulating plateau rather than a dramatic peak will likely unfold. Moreover, if the "peak demand" now evident in the OECD countries is a precursor of later developments in the emerging markets, world demand itself could eventually move on to a different course. More >>>

Key Oil Figures Were Distorted by US Pressure, Says Whistleblower

Watchdog's estimates of reserves inflated says top official

The world is much closer to running out of oil than official estimates admit, according to a whistleblower at the International Energy Agency who claims it has been deliberately underplaying a looming shortage for fear of triggering panic buying.

The senior official claims the US has played an influential role in encouraging the watchdog to underplay the rate of decline from existing oil fields while overplaying the chances of finding new reserves.

The allegations raise serious questions about the accuracy of the organisation's latest World Energy Outlook on oil demand and supply to be published tomorrow – which is used by the British and many other governments to help guide their wider energy and climate change policies. More >>>

Japan accelerates purchase of surplus solar electricity at homes

TOKYO — Sunday 1st November, - The government launched Sunday a new program that enables power companies to purchase at higher rates surplus electricity produced by solar power generation systems installed in homes, schools and hospitals.

The move is Japan’s latest attempt to make photovoltaic generation, which is cleaner in terms of carbon emissions than fossil fuels, more popular at the public level and to step up efforts to fight global warming.
 
On Saturday, the government said it may further accelerate such efforts, with Deputy Prime Minister Naoto Kan expressing his hope to launch another program during the year through March 2011, under which utility companies would buy all the solar electricity generated at homes and elsewhere. Kan said that would help give incentives to people to install solar panels on their roofs with ‘‘the state not required to spend even 1 yen.’’ Under the program begun Sunday, effective through the next 10 years, many of the utility firms will almost double payments to 48 yen for each kilowatt generated per hour by households and 24 yen by schools, hospitals and other facilities.
 


To cover the rise in costs, the electricity companies will collect a monthly surcharge of around 30 yen from every household and organization using electricity in the country, starting in April.
 
The surcharge is expected to rise to 50 to 100 yen in the next five to 10 years and critics say the additional burden will only weaken consumer sentiment, delaying Japan’s emergence from the economic downturn. More >>>

Firms Start to See Climate Change as Barrier to Profit

Monday, September 21, 2009 - As the real-world impacts of climate change begin to materialize and regulation of greenhouse gases appears more likely, corporate America has begun to grapple with a challenging question: How do you quantify the risks associated with climate change?

The answer depends on one's perspective. But companies are beginning to show increased willingness to disclose the extent to which they're contributing to global warming and what they're doing to keep it from harming their business.
"If we don't move now, it just becomes more expensive, more complicated and a bigger risk," said Brad Figel, director of government affairs at Nike, at a Capitol Hill briefing last week sponsored by Oxfam America.

On Monday, the Carbon Disclosure Project is set to release a report surveying the climate policies of the majority of the S&P 500, in which 52 percent of respondents said they've set emissions-reduction targets for the companies, compared with 32 percent last year. Many of these groups also see global warming as a threat to their bottom lines -- including 84 percent of financial-sector respondents -- citing concerns including a potential shortage of raw materials and supply-chain disruptions because of severe weather. More >>>

Gigascale Solar

Fri, September 11, 2009 - The Wall Street Journal and The New York Times report this week what could be another first for First Solar: a preliminary agreement with the Chinese government to build a 2-gigawatt photovoltaic farm in Inner Mongolia.

If the plant is actually built, it will be in stages over a decade, to cover eventually as much as 25 square miles. But "much of the deal hasn't been worked out yet," says the Journal with some understatement--minor details such as how much First Solar might be paid have yet to be settled. The company's plan is to sell the plant to a Chinese operator upon its completion, but the plant's profitability will depend on the size of the subsidies it would be eligible for. That's another detail to be worked out, as China right now is trying to decide whether to adopt a feed-in tariff that would guarantee returns on investments in renewables. More >>>

Schwarzenegger boosts clean energy plan

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) Wed Sep 16, 2009 - California's governor on Tuesday ordered that a third of the state's electricity come from renewable resources by 2020, the same amount as a legislature plan but with promises to let power companies get more electricity from outside the state.

Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger said that his plan would help the state better meet its clean energy target by making it easier to import power. He also said the legislature's alternative would have required solar thermal plants to clear more regulatory hurdles before they could be built. More >>>

Bioneers Conference

The Bioneers Conference is a leading-edge forum—join us in San Rafael, California, October 16-18 (with intensives October 15 and 19). At this premiere environmental conference, social and scientific innovators focus on solutions inspired by nature and human ingenuity.

The 2009 Bioneers Conference includes plenary speeches from: Amazonian Chief Almir, Brock Dolman, Kari Fulton, Jack Hidary, Sarah James, Jensine Larsen, Joanna Macy, Mari Margil, Jason McClennan, Michael Pollan, Jerome Ringo, Arturo Sandoval, Dr. Andrew Weil, Lily Yeh and more!

Andrew Weil, M.D.	Almir Narayamoga Surui	Joanna Macy	Michael Pollan

These visionaries are already creating the healthy, diverse, and more equitable world we want to live in—our legacy for future generations. Connect with engaged bioneers, who are making a real difference. More >>>